Best European Football Bets, Projected Odds & Predictions for Bundesliga, Serie A & La Liga (December 17-20)


There wasn’t much drama outside of England last weekend, with Real Madrid winning the last derby against Atlético Madrid.

However, we had a pretty big upheaval in Italy, with Empoli beating Napoli in a 1-0 road thriller with +700 underdogs.

This weekend, Ligue 1 in France is on hiatus, while there is a full Bundesliga roster, Serie A and La Liga are all in action. The last matches are marked by a huge clash in Spain between Sevilla and Atlético Madrid, as well as a top-of-the-table clash between AC Milan and Napoli.

If you want to learn more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify the value of bets on the current lines, and follow me in The Action Network application to see all the bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga screenings

Best bets

Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz

Frankfurt odds +125
Mainz odds +210
To design +265
More less 2.5 (-125 / +105)
day | Time saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Be up to date Football odds here

The Eintracht Frankfurt is overvalued in this place of residence. They might have won on the road at Borussia Mönchengladbach, but lost the battle for expected goals and starting defender Tuta due to a red card.

Overall for the season, Frankfurt have really struggled to create high-quality chances for themselves, even though they managed to counter Gladbach’s Swiss cheese from a back row. Frankfurt averages just 1.27 NPxG per game, ranking 10th in the Bundesliga, per fbref.com.

They will face one of Germany’s best defensive teams, with Mainz being second in the authorized NPxG, third in shots conceded every 90 minutes and first in big scoring chances with just nine conceded in 16 matches.

The Frankfurt defense also struggled, allowing 1.65 NPxG per game, placing it 15th in the German top flight. The reason is that they’ve conceded a ton of big scoring chances and the fifth-highest number of entries in the league. Mainz weren’t very good offensively, but they created the fifth best scoring chances in Germany.

I actually screened Mainz as a little favorite on the road, so I like the value on them +0.5 to -140 odds via DraftKings and will make them my first choice.

Take: Mainz +0.5 (-140)


Bochum v Union Berlin

Bochum odds +190
Union Berlin odds +150
To design +235
More less 2.5 (+105 / -125)
day | Time saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Be up to date Football odds here

Union Berlin shouldn’t be so low against a team like Bochum.

The host team are one of the worst defenses in the Bundesliga, allowing 1.67 NPxG per game, which is the third highest average in the league. Much of this is because they are likely to grant big scoring chances, conceding 33 so far this season which is the second most in the Bundesliga. In addition, they will be deprived of one of their defenders in Danilo Soares (injured) for this match.

Union Berlin have been a fairly average attack throughout the season, ranking 10th in NPxG per game and 12th in shots every 90 minutes. However, they have created the sixth best scoring chances in the Bundesliga, so they should be able to create some high quality chances against Bochum’s defense.

Berlin also has a top striker in the form of ex-Liverpool player Taiwo Awoniyi, who ignited the league with nine goals and a rate of 0.63 xG per 90 minutes.

The reason Union Berlin is in eighth place is because of its defense, which has been incredibly strong this season, allowing just 1.29 NPxG per game, which is the sixth best score in the Bundesliga.

They also conceded the third-highest scoring chances in the league, so I find it hard to believe that Bochum’s last five offensives will be able to generate high-quality chances.

I have Union Berlin projected at +111, so I like the Draw No Bet value of -125 odds.

Take: Union Berlin – No bet draw (-125)


Series A screenings

Best bets

Fiorentina vs. Sassuolo

Fiorentina odds -110
Sassuolo odds +300
To design +280
More less 3.5 (+ 135 / -170)
day | Time Sunday | 6:30 a.m. ET
How to watch Paramount +
Odds via DraftKings. Be up to date Football odds here

Fiorentina are a very overrated team, as they have scored 31 goals out of 25.7 xG so far. This is mainly due to the fact that they have Serie A top scorer, Dusan Vlahovic, in their squad. The Serbian has scored 15 goals out of 9.2 xG this season. Now he’s a good young striker, but he’s not that good.

Additionally, much of Fiorentina’s success has fallen to the bottom of the table. Against the last seven teams in Italy, Fiorentina created 13.7 xG and allowed only 4.5 xG. Against the top 13 teams, they only created 12.7xG and 16.2xG conceded in 10 games.

Now they face a side of Sassuolo currently in 11th place, but in very good shape so far. They are unbeaten in their last five games and clinched a convincing 2-1 victory over Lazio last weekend.

Their attack created the sixth-highest scoring chances in Serie A, which is huge because that’s how you beat that Fiorentina backline which allowed the second fewest shots per 90 minutes, but took conceded the ninth-highest scoring chances in the league.

If we only look at the expected goal differential without penalty, because Fiorentina have been very lucky this season getting six penalties, the club is at +3.5, while Sassuolo is at +1.8 overall. So these teams are not that far apart from each other, even though there are six places separating them in the table.

I only have the Fiorentina projected at +141 odds. If you look FiveThirtyEight, they only have 45% Fiorentina and infogol.net actually screened Sassuolo as a slight favorite.

That said, I like that Sassuolo gets +0.5 to +100 odds on DraftKings to get a result on the road.

Take: Sassuolo +0.5 (+100)

Turin vs. Verona

Turin odds +125
Verona odds +235
To design +245
More less 2.5 (-110 / -110)
day | Time Sunday | 12 p.m. ET
How to watch Paramount +
Odds via DraftKings. Be up to date Football odds here

Turin are one of the most underperforming teams in all of Europe, but they are starting to recover some of that positive regression after a deserving 2-1 against Bologna last weekend. Turin’s defense is one of the best in the league, allowing just 0.82 NPxG per game, which is the third best score in the league. They are also third in shots granted every 90 minutes and first in preventing crosses into their penalty area.

The most important thing with this match is that Turin are the best pressing team in Italy, as they are first in PPDA and ball recovery, while Verona is 17th in allowed pressure success rate and last in ball recovery. conceded. Thus, Torino should be able to win the ball in the middle of the field and create chances on the counterattack.

Verona is one of Italy’s biggest offensive outperformers, having scored 33 goals from 23.3 xG so far. Thus, facing one of the best defensive teams in the league should cause a negative regression.

Offensively, Torino have been pretty, placing seventh in the NPxG, but created the third-highest scoring chances, while Verona are 14th in high scoring chances allowed.

I have Torino projected at -114, so I like their value at +125 odds.

Take: Turin +125


La Liga screenings

Best bets

Granada vs. Mallorca

Grenada odds +145
Mallorca coast +205
To design +230
More less 2.5 (+ 140 / -175)
day | Time Sunday | 8:00 a.m.ET
How to watch ESPN +
Odds via DraftKings. Be up to date Football odds here

I understand that these are two bottom teams in La Liga, but I think that total is a bit too low.

Granada is without a doubt the worst defense in Spain. They allow 1.43 npxG per game, 15.69 shots per 90 minutes and 1.56 big scoring chances per game, all of which are the last of Spain’s top flight.

Offensively, Mallorca only average 0.85 NPxG per game, but they’ve created the sixth-best scoring chances in Spain, so facing the worst defense in the league should allow them to create some high-quality chances. They also have talent and pace to move forward with Real Madrid loaner Takefusa Kubo.

Granada struggled to create chances, scoring just 15.1 xG in 17 games. However, they’ve been playing a lot better lately, with 9.8xG in their last seven games.

A lot can be contributed to the fact that manager Roberto Moreno switched to a 4-4-2 formation which gave them more structure and was the setup with which they have on average the most xG / 90 minutes a day. last season. However, on the 4-4-2 exit, Granada lost goals, allowing 1.60 xG every 90 minutes.

So with the change creating more high scoring matches with Mallorca being below par in all defensive measures including the 13th at NPxG cleared, I think we will see a game with a higher score than expected.

I have 2.52 goals planned for this matchup, so I like the value out of the two-goal total on the alternate line at -125 odds.

Take: Total of 2 goals (-125)

Athletic Bilbao v Real Betis

Athletic Bilbao odds +105
Real Betis odds +270
To design +245
More less 2.5 (+115 / -135)
day | Time Sunday | 10:15 a.m.ET
How to watch ESPN +
Odds via DraftKings. Be up to date Football odds here

This is a perfect low buy point at Athletic Bilbao and a high sell point at Real Betis. Athletic Bilbao have been incredibly unlucky lately as they haven’t won in their last eight games but have won the battle against xG by a combined margin of 11.2-7.8.

So, they are late for a win. They play a style very similar to Atlético Madrid, playing on a 4-4-2, remaining organized and compact defensively. And it worked this season, as they are one of the best defensive teams in Spain, allowing just 0.79 NPxG per game, which is La Liga’s second highest score, per fbref.com.

The most important thing in this game, however, is that the 4-4-2 tries to plug the midfield and force the opponents to beat them with crosses in the box. This shows with Athletic Bilbao as it is their biggest weakness, ranking ninth among crosses completed in their own penalty area.

Well Real Betis are generally a team that likes to play in the middle of the field, as they have achieved the third-less crosses in La Liga this season.

Real Betis’ defense have been very lucky and really due to negative regression as they have only allowed 16 goals out of 21 xG so far. They have also allowed 23 big scoring chances so far which is the third biggest in La Liga, while Athletic Bilbao have created the fourth biggest scoring chances.

I have Athletic Bilbao projected at -107 odds, so I like them at +111, which is currently available from Caesars and would bring it down to +105 odds at DraftKings and make that my best pick.

Take: Athletic Bilbao ML (+111)

About Victoria Rothstein

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